{ "generated_at": "2026-06-19T05:44:14.890Z", "vote_share_board": { "basis": "latest model", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "keiko": 50.21, "sanchez": 49.79, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": 0.92, "p_win_sanchez": 0.08, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count" }, "probability_board": { "basis": "INFRATEK Bayesian logit filter: posterior de voto valido con mercados capados por fase", "metric": "win_probability", "keiko": 0.92, "sanchez": 0.08, "methodology": { "version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_minutes": 30, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "public_summary": "Filtro bayesiano secuencial sobre el voto valido. Cada fuente entra con precision calibrada; P(win) sale de la distribucion posterior, no de promediar probabilidades con porcentajes de voto.", "state_space": { "latent_state": "theta_t = voto valido de Keiko; phi_t = logit(theta_t)", "transition": "phi_t = phi_t-1 + eta_t", "update": "precision posterior = precision previa + suma de precisiones de fuentes activas" }, "win_functional": { "expression": "P(win) = Pr(theta_t > 0.5 | F_t) = Phi(mu_t / sigma_t)", "z_score": null, "posterior_logit_mean": 0.008, "posterior_logit_sigma": null, "computed_keiko": null, "publishability_cap": 1 }, "source_weights_effective": { "polls_and_simulations": 0, "fundamentals": 0, "markets_capped": 0 }, "calibrated_parameters": { "declared_not_derived": "Las varianzas por fuente se calibran con error historico y transparencia; no se estiman libremente en vivo.", "market_rule": "Phase 1: peso de mercado capado y siempre inferior al bloque de encuestas/simulacros; Phase 2/3: tiende a cero.", "publishability": "En Phase 1 P(win) no se publica sobre 85% aunque el funcional matematico sea mayor." }, "phase_rules": { "phase_1": "Antes del cierre: encuestas/simulacros dominan, mercados capados, P(win) no excede 85%.", "phase_2": "Boca de urna/conteo rapido: el conteo metodologicamente solido domina y mercados tienden a cero.", "phase_3": "ONPE: el estimador se ancla a actas oficiales y se corrige por orden de reporte regional." }, "evaluation_plan": [ "Comparar P(win) y voto modelado contra boca de urna sin tratarla como resultado final.", "Recalibrar contra conteos rapidos metodologicamente auditables cuando aparezcan.", "Durante ONPE, usar estimador de actas por estrato para evitar sesgo urbano/rural de reporte temprano.", "Cerrar evaluacion con Brier, log-loss y cobertura del intervalo creible contra el resultado oficial." ], "public_boundary": "Los documentos con prohibicion legal de difusion no se republican; solo alimentan agregados matematicos sin tablas ni PDF." }, "formula": { "version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "valid_vote_posterior_mean": 50.21, "uncertainty_band_pp": null, "ic90": [ null, null ], "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "expression": "P(win) = Pr(theta_t > 0.5 | F_t) = Phi(mu_t / sigma_t)", "live_market_nowcast": { "market_keiko": 0.989, "overlay_weight": 0, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.92, "adjusted_pwin_keiko": 0.92 }, "note": "P(win) se deriva de la distribucion posterior de voto valido. El mercado vivo aplica un nowcast capado sobre logit; es senal de probabilidad, no voto." } }, "pwin_history": [ { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-12T21:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-12T21:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-12T21:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-12T21:34:53.368Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 16:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.866, "pwin_sanchez": 0.134, "polymarket_keiko": 98.1, "kalshi_keiko": 97.7, "market_mean_keiko": 0.979, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.866, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-12T21:26:00.263Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 98.273, "onpe_margin_votes": 1448, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 1448, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 115094, "projectionSigmaVotes": 23181, "residualSigmaVotes": 101423, "totalSigmaVotes": 104038, "momentumSanchez30m": 1.404, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.658, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 127722 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 107165 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 139468 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 66053 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-12T21:34:53.410Z", "input_signature": "3ad123cc2330ba9ea823abfbcb3cd53c0389284248c342bf77ed156e73c9a194", "delta_pp": 0 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-12T22:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-12T22:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-12T22:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-12T22:32:03.583Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 17:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.869, "pwin_sanchez": 0.131, "polymarket_keiko": 98.1, "kalshi_keiko": 98, "market_mean_keiko": 0.981, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.869, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-12T22:26:00.071Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 98.299, "onpe_margin_votes": 3499, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 3499, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 115434, "projectionSigmaVotes": 22831, "residualSigmaVotes": 100423, "totalSigmaVotes": 102986, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.298, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.311, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 127871 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 107625 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 139441 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 67131 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-12T22:32:03.619Z", "input_signature": "a88ef567a9459b949ed27806e85f0b82638a3dc7daa634438ecb7c834e26574e", "delta_pp": 0.3 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-12T23:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-12T23:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-12T23:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-12T23:32:03.287Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 18:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.869, "pwin_sanchez": 0.131, "polymarket_keiko": 98.2, "kalshi_keiko": 98.4, "market_mean_keiko": 0.983, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.869, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-12T23:25:25.253Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 98.304, "onpe_margin_votes": 3616, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 3616, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 115223, "projectionSigmaVotes": 22764, "residualSigmaVotes": 100231, "totalSigmaVotes": 102783, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.444, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.333, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 127623 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 107436 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 139159 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 67062 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-12T23:32:03.330Z", "input_signature": "eb2f58f9face01c7f8e2e76c39b5106dcdcb9bda04b28cea4da548afced205f9", "delta_pp": 0 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-13T00:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-13T00:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-13T00:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-13T00:39:58.049Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 19:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.869, "pwin_sanchez": 0.131, "polymarket_keiko": 98.4, "kalshi_keiko": 98.3, "market_mean_keiko": 0.984, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.869, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-13T00:30:25.747Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 98.323, "onpe_margin_votes": 4308, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 4308, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 114663, "projectionSigmaVotes": 22509, "residualSigmaVotes": 99500, "totalSigmaVotes": 102014, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.363, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.387, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 126925 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 106964 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 138331 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 67042 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. 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Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-13T01:44:45.138Z", "input_signature": "126c9fe442595a39316c4414e72137c0cbfb593f90a0b5267abe3bd072f537ec", "delta_pp": 0 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-13T03:00:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-13T03:00:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-13T03:00:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-13T03:06:18.968Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 22:00 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.87, "pwin_sanchez": 0.13, "polymarket_keiko": 98.9, "kalshi_keiko": 98.8, "market_mean_keiko": 0.988, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.87, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-13T03:02:00.092Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 98.325, "onpe_margin_votes": 4452, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 4452, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 114676, "projectionSigmaVotes": 22482, "residualSigmaVotes": 99423, "totalSigmaVotes": 101933, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.346, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.344, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 126923 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 106986 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 138316 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 67112 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-13T03:06:19.017Z", "input_signature": "1026a8f1979e851efd1394668fb65d5fbd3aab97903e9009a4ed8b503ac847ef", "delta_pp": 0.1 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-13T05:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-13T05:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-13T05:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-13T05:31:37.381Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 00:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.87, "pwin_sanchez": 0.13, "polymarket_keiko": 98.9, "kalshi_keiko": 99, "market_mean_keiko": 0.989, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.87, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-13T05:25:25.547Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 98.327, "onpe_margin_votes": 4519, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 4519, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 114612, "projectionSigmaVotes": 22456, "residualSigmaVotes": 99346, "totalSigmaVotes": 101852, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.422, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.422, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 126844 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 106931 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 138223 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 67104 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. 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Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-18T17:05:40.481Z", "input_signature": "73da8149c156bb4b35b8cf6f9615a90c66fed1f10abf44d8bba4948a1b151b3d", "delta_pp": -0.1 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-18T18:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-18T18:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-18T18:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-18T18:49:00.714Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 13:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.912, "pwin_sanchez": 0.088, "polymarket_keiko": 99.3, "kalshi_keiko": 99, "market_mean_keiko": 0.992, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.912, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-18T18:40:19.041Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.392, "onpe_margin_votes": 39650, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 39650, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 79660, "projectionSigmaVotes": 8161, "residualSigmaVotes": 58385, "totalSigmaVotes": 58952, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.242, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.351, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 84105 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 76868 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 88241 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62395 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-18T18:49:00.765Z", "input_signature": "8232b03771ba87002a36de08d00e0c9c0b38ee72d615b772d54285c09ff824a5", "delta_pp": 0.2 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-18T20:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-18T20:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-18T20:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-18T20:50:27.198Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 15:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.914, "pwin_sanchez": 0.086, "polymarket_keiko": 99.3, "kalshi_keiko": 98.6, "market_mean_keiko": 0.989, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.914, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-18T20:42:00.075Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.409, "onpe_margin_votes": 40541, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 40541, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 79432, "projectionSigmaVotes": 7933, "residualSigmaVotes": 57731, "totalSigmaVotes": 58273, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.371, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.371, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 83753 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 76719 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 87773 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62650 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-18T20:50:27.268Z", "input_signature": "39f6fbc7fc2f677861fb80e4ea67619ea781700fa22a5913d0e5d101f02935e0", "delta_pp": 0.2 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-18T21:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-18T21:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-18T21:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-18T21:42:36.981Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 16:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.913, "pwin_sanchez": 0.087, "polymarket_keiko": 99.3, "kalshi_keiko": 98.9, "market_mean_keiko": 0.991, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.913, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-18T21:35:19.561Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.42, "onpe_margin_votes": 40602, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 40602, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 78769, "projectionSigmaVotes": 7785, "residualSigmaVotes": 57308, "totalSigmaVotes": 57834, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.486, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.414, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 83010 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 76106 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 86955 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62299 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-18T21:42:37.050Z", "input_signature": "08e1a29141f07cdf47b2545caf62f2a33cdc88fcf33d23cc73910a691cf7dddb", "delta_pp": -0.1 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-18T22:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-18T22:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-18T22:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-18T22:43:08.609Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 17:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.914, "pwin_sanchez": 0.086, "polymarket_keiko": 99.3, "kalshi_keiko": 99, "market_mean_keiko": 0.992, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.914, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-18T22:36:00.097Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.427, "onpe_margin_votes": 41017, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 41017, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 78723, "projectionSigmaVotes": 7691, "residualSigmaVotes": 57038, "totalSigmaVotes": 57555, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.29, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.396, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 82913 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 76093 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 86810 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62452 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-18T22:43:08.678Z", "input_signature": "50dcf690df7d38524662499ce5ca56811290eeb9ceefacce6325f9357dde0e3d", "delta_pp": 0.1 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-18T23:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-18T23:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-18T23:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-18T23:35:37.046Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 18:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.915, "pwin_sanchez": 0.085, "polymarket_keiko": 99.3, "kalshi_keiko": 99, "market_mean_keiko": 0.992, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.915, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-18T23:26:00.081Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.436, "onpe_margin_votes": 41493, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 41493, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 78607, "projectionSigmaVotes": 7570, "residualSigmaVotes": 56692, "totalSigmaVotes": 57196, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.381, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.407, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 82731 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 76018 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 86567 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62592 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-18T23:35:37.095Z", "input_signature": "383da236fdc684a35708300a9d2ea4d80d903e4341f1834e8c174e3581901db8", "delta_pp": 0.1 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-19T00:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-19T00:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-19T00:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-19T00:44:04.610Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 19:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.915, "pwin_sanchez": 0.085, "polymarket_keiko": 99.5, "kalshi_keiko": 99, "market_mean_keiko": 0.992, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.915, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-19T00:35:25.392Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.437, "onpe_margin_votes": 41527, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 41527, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 78576, "projectionSigmaVotes": 7557, "residualSigmaVotes": 56654, "totalSigmaVotes": 57156, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.419, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.355, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 82692 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 75991 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 86521 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62588 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-19T00:44:04.651Z", "input_signature": "a1edffa54356e9fe2eb36e8887335bef29a019204dd2f065989999f25ec9648b", "delta_pp": 0 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-19T01:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-19T01:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-19T01:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-19T01:58:37.491Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 20:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.916, "pwin_sanchez": 0.084, "polymarket_keiko": 99.5, "kalshi_keiko": 99, "market_mean_keiko": 0.992, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.916, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-19T01:50:19.079Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.444, "onpe_margin_votes": 41920, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 41920, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 78508, "projectionSigmaVotes": 7463, "residualSigmaVotes": 56385, "totalSigmaVotes": 56876, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.355, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.363, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 82573 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 75955 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 86355 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62719 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-19T01:58:37.569Z", "input_signature": "cd41a71ab3ba58918004b505b0100909394381ca5041d90e948b33bce67aeb24", "delta_pp": 0.1 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-19T03:00:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-19T03:00:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-19T03:00:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-19T03:12:34.241Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 22:00 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.916, "pwin_sanchez": 0.084, "polymarket_keiko": 99.5, "kalshi_keiko": 99, "market_mean_keiko": 0.992, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.916, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-19T03:05:19.063Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.444, "onpe_margin_votes": 41920, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 41920, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 78508, "projectionSigmaVotes": 7463, "residualSigmaVotes": 56385, "totalSigmaVotes": 56876, "momentumSanchez30m": null, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.355, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 82573 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 75955 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 86355 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62719 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-19T03:12:34.290Z", "input_signature": "ae5cce0af055e83c929313c276b5a4d5c3ec96181e939e55a2cd72c38937856f", "delta_pp": 0 }, { "id": "official-30m:2026-06-19T05:30:00.000Z", "time": "2026-06-19T05:30:00.000Z", "slot_at": "2026-06-19T05:30:00.000Z", "captured_at": "2026-06-19T05:44:14.796Z", "label": "Corte oficial P(win) 00:30 PET", "source_type": "official-30m", "pwin_keiko": 0.92, "pwin_sanchez": 0.08, "polymarket_keiko": 99.1, "kalshi_keiko": 98.7, "market_mean_keiko": 0.989, "base_pwin_keiko": 0.92, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "onpe_asof": "2026-06-19T05:35:26.443Z", "onpe_actas_pct": 99.506, "onpe_margin_votes": 44101, "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 44101, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 76609, "projectionSigmaVotes": 6631, "residualSigmaVotes": 54000, "totalSigmaVotes": 54406, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.415, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.415, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 80221 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 74341 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 83581 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62581 } ] }, "formula_version": "bayesian-logit-filter-v3", "basis": "official 30-minute cut over latest model posterior", "paper": "INFRATEK Quantitative Methods Working Paper, June 2026", "cadence_status": "official_30m", "display_in_pwin_chart": true, "audit_status": "locked_official_30m", "note": "Corte oficial de 30 minutos: P(win) posterior del modelo logit + overlay de mercado capado. Los runs manuales quedan fuera del grafico.", "immutable": true, "locked_at": "2026-06-19T05:44:14.858Z", "input_signature": "1a845e1c62acfd5dffbe2cb0b1e34c6e82b321bca4f3c5c2f60a627fdd9e2a7f", "delta_pp": 0.4 } ], "pwin_sensitivity": { "version": "red-team-sensitivity-v1", "base_pwin_keiko": 0.92, "adjusted_pwin_keiko": 0.92, "market_mean_keiko": 0.989, "market_overlay_weight": 0, "drop_markets_delta_pp": 0, "live_market_shift_pp": 0, "market_elasticity_pp_per_1pp": 0, "recent_variation": { "pwin_unique_values_last_8": 5, "market_unique_values_last_8": 3, "interpretation": "variacion dentro de lo esperado" }, "martingale_check": { "status": "pass", "delta_pp": 0.4, "threshold_pp": 10, "action": "continue" }, "top_ablation": "Si se elimina el overlay de mercado vivo, P(win) vuelve al P(win) base del posterior de voto valido; esa diferencia es el maximo aporte visible del mercado en esta fase." }, "run_analysis": { "generated_at": "2026-06-19T05:44:14.890Z", "headline": "P(win) movio +0.4 pp en la ultima corrida.", "latest_pwin_keiko": 0.92, "latest_pwin_sanchez": 0.08, "delta_pp_last_run": 0.4, "latest_model_label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 99.506%", "latest_model_captured_at": "2026-06-19T05:43:32.353Z", "latest_model_age_hours": 0, "latest_market_summary": "Kalshi 98.7% Keiko; Polymarket 99.1% Keiko", "effective_market_weight": 0, "sensitivity_summary": "Cada +1 pp de mercado mueve P(win) ~0 pp; quitar mercado cambia 0 pp.", "martingale_check": { "status": "pass", "delta_pp": 0.4, "threshold_pp": 10, "action": "continue" }, "why_static": "El tablero separa voto valido de probabilidad. En phase-1-pre-close los mercados no reemplazan el modelo base; solo aplican un overlay capado y auditable." }, "sources": { "vote_share": [ { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "Conteo rapido Ipsos+Transparencia 100% + Datum, 21:10 PET", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T02:21:21.415Z", "asof": "2026-06-07T21:10:00-05:00", "processed": null, "provenance": "Imagen TV enviada por Sergio + El Comercio: Ipsos/Transparencia conteo rapido integral 100% Sanchez 50.3 Keiko 49.7 MOE +/-1.9; El Comercio tambien lista Datum America TV Sanchez 50.14 Keiko 49.86. Clasificacion: conteo rapido acta-based, empate tecnico, no ONPE final.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 quick-count Ipsos+Datum correlated technical tie", "sigma_pp": 1.15, "ic90_low": 47.89, "ic90_high": 51.67, "p_win_keiko": 0.42, "p_win_sanchez": 0.58, "source_weights_effective": { "quick_count_ipsos_transparencia": 0.55, "quick_count_datum_correlated": 0.2, "onpe_raw_unstratified": 0.05, "markets_capped": 0.01, "prior": 0.19 }, "phase": "phase-2-quick-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 49.78, "sanchez_raw": 50.22, "keiko": 49.78, "sanchez": 50.22 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "Flash TV votos emitidos Panamericana 2026-06-07 19:24 PET", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T00:54:53.870Z", "asof": "2026-06-07T19:24:00-05:00", "processed": null, "provenance": "Panamericana TV P21, captura TV enviada por Sergio 2026-06-07 19:25 PET. Votos emitidos: Keiko 46.6, Sanchez 45.4, blancos/nulos 8.0; normalizado a voto valido 50.65/49.35.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 exit poll Ipsos+Datum+TV flash correlated conservative sigma", "sigma_pp": 1.2, "ic90_low": 48.68, "ic90_high": 52.62, "p_win_keiko": 0.706, "p_win_sanchez": 0.294, "source_weights_effective": { "markets_capped": 0.01, "exit_poll_ipsos": 0.42, "exit_poll_datum_correlated": 0.18, "tv_flash_correlated": 0.08, "prior": 0.31 }, "phase": "phase-2-exit-quick-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 46.6, "sanchez_raw": 45.4, "keiko": 50.65, "sanchez": 49.35 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "Ipsos + Datum boca de urna 17:00 PET, fusion conservadora", "captured_at": "2026-06-07T23:23:28.324Z", "asof": "2026-06-07T22:00:00.000Z", "processed": null, "provenance": "Ipsos Peru/Peru21/Latina PDF + El Peruano/RPP corroboration; Datum Internacional corroborated via public reports (Pachamama/El Universo/UOL). Dedupe: Ipsos PDF is same numeric signal as Ipsos/Andina, Datum treated as correlated secondary source.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 exit poll Ipsos+Datum correlated", "sigma_pp": 0.695, "ic90_low": 49.45, "ic90_high": 51.74, "p_win_keiko": 0.804, "p_win_sanchez": 0.196, "source_weights_effective": { "markets_capped": 0.01, "exit_poll_ipsos": 0.55, "exit_poll_datum_correlated": 0.25, "prior": 0.19 }, "phase": "phase-2-exit-quick-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 50.596, "sanchez_raw": 49.404, "keiko": 50.6, "sanchez": 49.4 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "Ipsos + Datum boca de urna 17:00 PET, fusion conservadora recalibrada", "captured_at": "2026-06-07T23:32:21.635Z", "asof": null, "processed": null, "provenance": "Recalibracion 2026-06-07 18:24 PET: Ipsos 50.7/49.3 y Datum 50.53/49.47 confirmados por busqueda publica; ambas senales tratadas como boca de urna correlacionada, empate tecnico, sin conteo rapido/ONPE. Sigma efectivo sube a 1.15 pp para evitar falsa precision.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 exit poll Ipsos+Datum correlated conservative sigma", "sigma_pp": 1.15, "ic90_low": 48.71, "ic90_high": 52.49, "p_win_keiko": 0.699, "p_win_sanchez": 0.301, "source_weights_effective": { "markets_capped": 0.01, "exit_poll_ipsos": 0.45, "exit_poll_datum_correlated": 0.2, "prior": 0.34 }, "phase": "phase-2-exit-quick-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 50.6, "sanchez_raw": 49.4, "keiko": 50.6, "sanchez": 49.4 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "Ipsos boca de urna 17:00 PET", "captured_at": "2026-06-07T23:12:00.923Z", "asof": "2026-06-07T22:00:00.000Z", "processed": null, "provenance": "https://andina.pe/agencia/noticia-ipsos-a-boca-urna-keiko-fujimori-507-roberto-sanchez-493-1078420.aspx", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 exit poll Ipsos", "sigma_pp": 0.9, "ic90_low": 49.22, "ic90_high": 52.18, "p_win_keiko": 0.782, "p_win_sanchez": 0.218, "source_weights_effective": { "markets_capped": 0.01, "exit_poll": 0.74, "prior": 0.25 }, "phase": "phase-2-exit-quick-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 50.7, "sanchez_raw": 49.3, "keiko": 50.7, "sanchez": 49.3 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE 06:32 PET robust 48h scenario fusion", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T11:37:27.371Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T07:32:00-04:00", "processed": null, "provenance": "ONPE official 2026-06-08 06:32 PET: 92.295% actas, Keiko 50.206, Sanchez 49.794, Keiko margin 71,689, remaining valid estimate 1.450M. Sanchez needs 52.47% of pending. ONPE new valid votes from 80.988% to 92.295% gave Sanchez 62.41%, but pending geography is unverified, so trajectory is penalized. Cross-checks: Ipsos/Transparencia 100% quick count Sanchez 50.3 Keiko 49.7; Datum 100% quick count Sanchez 50.14 Keiko 49.86; markets Keiko about 79-80 are treated as sentiment/liquidity only, not vote share.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v3 phase-3 robust 48h scenario fusion", "sigma_pp": 0.35, "ic90_low": 49.23, "ic90_high": 50.38, "p_win_keiko": 0.267, "p_win_sanchez": 0.733, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official_current_threshold": 0.25, "quick_count_ipsos_transparencia": 0.25, "quick_count_datum_correlated": 0.2, "onpe_late_block_trajectory_penalized": 0.15, "unknown_pending_geography_stress": 0.15, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-robust-48h-scenario", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 49.8, "sanchez_raw": 50.2, "keiko": 49.8, "sanchez": 50.2 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE 06:36 PET exterior/JEE corrected", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T11:45:31.131Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T07:36:00-04:00", "processed": 92.328, "provenance": "ONPE official 2026-06-08 06:36 PET: 92.328% actas contabilizadas, 85,649 counted of 92,766; 1,506 para envio JEE + 5,611 pendientes = 7,117 unresolved actas. Keiko 8,721,496 (50.200), Sanchez 8,652,055 (49.800), margin Keiko 69,441. Estimated unresolved valid votes 1.443M; Sanchez needs 52.41% of unresolved to pass. Latest ONPE blocks are strongly Sanchez, but exterior has 2,543 mesas and 1.210M habilitados / ~33.95% prior turnout, so if much exterior is still unresolved and Keiko-heavy it can erase the late domestic trend. Forecast corrected down from 72.1 Sanchez to 59.0 Sanchez until unresolved geography is proven.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 phase-3 ONPE trajectory + exterior/JEE risk corrected", "sigma_pp": 0.45, "ic90_low": 49.35, "ic90_high": 50.65, "p_win_keiko": 0.41, "p_win_sanchez": 0.59, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_trajectory": 0.3, "pending_threshold": 0.25, "quick_counts": 0.25, "exterior_jee_risk": 0.2, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 49.9, "sanchez_raw": 50.1, "keiko": 49.9, "sanchez": 50.1 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE 06:46 PET exterior 0 counted correction", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T11:55:17.705Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T07:46:00-04:00", "processed": 92.428, "provenance": "ONPE official 2026-06-08 06:46 PET: national 92.428% actas, Keiko 50.183 / Sanchez 49.817, Keiko margin 63,547. ONPE official EXTRANJERO filter at 06:52 PET shows 2,543 total exterior actas, 0 contabilizadas, 0 JEE, 2,543 pendientes, 0 votes for both candidates. Therefore exterior is not counted in national totals. With 1,210,813 habilitados abroad, turnout scenarios 34-45% imply ~412k-545k exterior votes. If exterior is 70-80% Keiko, Sanchez must win remaining non-exterior unresolved/JEE vote by roughly 61-72%, above or near the late ONPE domestic trajectory. User-provided country card is treated as unverified signal only because ONPE official still shows 0 counted abroad and the card omits Americas. Forecast corrected from Sanchez 58.8% to Keiko 64% pending official exterior counts.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 phase-3 ONPE + exterior uncounted correction", "sigma_pp": 0.48, "ic90_low": 49.4, "ic90_high": 50.95, "p_win_keiko": 0.64, "p_win_sanchez": 0.36, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official_current": 0.3, "exterior_uncounted_risk": 0.35, "domestic_late_trajectory": 0.15, "quick_counts": 0.15, "markets_capped": 0.05 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 50.18, "sanchez_raw": 49.82, "keiko": 50.18, "sanchez": 49.82 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE 07:02 PET two-bucket exterior/domestic model", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T12:05:37.862Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T08:02:00-04:00", "processed": 92.513, "provenance": "ONPE official 2026-06-08 07:02 PET: national 92.513% actas, Keiko 8,728,975 (50.172), Sanchez 8,669,003 (49.828), Keiko margin 59,972. ONPE official EXTRANJERO filter remains 0% counted: 2,543 actas, 0 contabilizadas, 0 JEE, 2,543 pendientes, 0 votes for both. Remaining unresolved total: 6,945 actas = 5,439 pending + 1,506 JEE; estimated domestic unresolved after removing exterior: 4,402 actas / ~892k valid votes. Domestic late trajectory since 80.988% gave Sanchez 62.53%, but exterior uncounted is modeled separately: turnout truncated normal mean 37% of 1,210,813 and Keiko exterior share mean 73% with high uncertainty because user card is unverified and omits Americas. Monte Carlo 300k draws: Keiko P(win)=59.1%, median final margin +22k, 80% range -100k to +152k, median final Keiko vote share 50.06%. Markets Keiko ~78-80 treated as weak signal only.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v3 two-bucket ONPE domestic + exterior uncounted", "sigma_pp": 0.26, "ic90_low": 49.6, "ic90_high": 50.55, "p_win_keiko": 0.591, "p_win_sanchez": 0.409, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_current_margin": 0.25, "domestic_late_trajectory": 0.25, "exterior_uncounted": 0.35, "markets_capped": 0.05, "quick_counts": 0.1 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 50.06, "sanchez_raw": 49.94, "keiko": 50.06, "sanchez": 49.94 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 93.623%", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T16:54:18.002Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T16:28:00.181Z", "processed": 93.623, "provenance": "ONPE official live snapshot + documented final-stretch scenarios", "verified": true, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": 0.653, "p_win_sanchez": 0.347, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 6000, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 112669, "projectionSigmaVotes": 54310, "residualSigmaVotes": 280269, "totalSigmaVotes": 285483, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.666, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.666, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 131348 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 112371 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 177298 }, { "key": "stress-sanchez", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": -7498 } ] }, "keiko_raw": 50.30137659654789, "sanchez_raw": 49.69862340345211, "keiko": 50.3, "sanchez": 49.7 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 93.698%", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T16:59:15.065Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T16:52:00.266Z", "processed": 93.698, "provenance": "ONPE official live snapshot + documented final-stretch scenarios", "verified": true, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": 0.657, "p_win_sanchez": 0.343, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 6244, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 114433, "projectionSigmaVotes": 53930, "residualSigmaVotes": 277385, "totalSigmaVotes": 282579, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.605, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.644, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 133140 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 113882 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 178527 }, { "key": "stress-sanchez", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": -4861 } ] }, "keiko_raw": 50.30620163439965, "sanchez_raw": 49.69379836560035, "keiko": 50.31, "sanchez": 49.69 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 93.727%", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T17:00:08.487Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T16:56:00.321Z", "processed": 93.727, "provenance": "ONPE official live snapshot + documented final-stretch scenarios", "verified": true, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": 0.658, "p_win_sanchez": 0.342, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 5664, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 114441, "projectionSigmaVotes": 53783, "residualSigmaVotes": 276269, "totalSigmaVotes": 281456, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.604, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.642, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 133159 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 113792 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 178328 }, { "key": "stress-sanchez", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": -4515 } ] }, "keiko_raw": 50.30626470625082, "sanchez_raw": 49.69373529374918, "keiko": 50.31, "sanchez": 49.69 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 93.794%", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T17:30:06.726Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T17:26:00.400Z", "processed": 93.794, "provenance": "ONPE official live snapshot + documented final-stretch scenarios", "verified": true, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": 0.656, "p_win_sanchez": 0.344, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 2057, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 112193, "projectionSigmaVotes": 53444, "residualSigmaVotes": 273692, "totalSigmaVotes": 278861, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.743, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.644, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 130936 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 111317 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 175602 }, { "key": "stress-sanchez", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": -5983 } ] }, "keiko_raw": 50.30033099348397, "sanchez_raw": 49.69966900651604, "keiko": 50.3, "sanchez": 49.7 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 93.920%", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T18:00:06.199Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T17:58:00.363Z", "processed": 93.92, "provenance": "ONPE official live snapshot + documented final-stretch scenarios", "verified": true, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": 0.656, "p_win_sanchez": 0.344, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 2942, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 109749, "projectionSigmaVotes": 52807, "residualSigmaVotes": 268846, "totalSigmaVotes": 273983, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.651, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.641, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 128539 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 108447 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 172259 }, { "key": "stress-sanchez", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": -6961 } ] }, "keiko_raw": 50.29389969317579, "sanchez_raw": 49.70610030682421, "keiko": 50.29, "sanchez": 49.71 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 93.941%", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T18:29:36.918Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T18:02:00.382Z", "processed": 93.941, "provenance": "ONPE official live snapshot + documented final-stretch scenarios", "verified": true, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": 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"model", "label": "ONPE adaptive posterior 99.506%", "captured_at": "2026-06-19T05:43:32.353Z", "asof": "2026-06-19T05:35:26.443Z", "processed": 99.506, "provenance": "ONPE official live snapshot + documented final-stretch scenarios", "verified": true, "model_version": "onpe-adaptive-posterior-v1", "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": 0.92, "p_win_sanchez": 0.08, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_official": 0.82, "final_stretch_scenarios": 0.18, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-official-count", "diagnostics": { "onpeMarginVotes": 44101, "meanFinalMarginVotes": 76609, "projectionSigmaVotes": 6631, "residualSigmaVotes": 54000, "totalSigmaVotes": 54406, "momentumSanchez30m": 0.415, "momentumSanchez120m": 0.415, "scenarios": [ { "key": "base", "weight": 0.45, "marginVotes": 80221 }, { "key": "conservative", "weight": 0.25, "marginVotes": 74341 }, { "key": "market", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 83581 }, { "key": "stress", "weight": 0.15, "marginVotes": 62581 } ] }, "keiko_raw": 50.20834745910703, "sanchez_raw": 49.79165254089297, "keiko": 50.21, "sanchez": 49.79 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "model", "label": "ONPE trajectory 92.254% + quick-count fusion, 06:16 PET", "captured_at": "2026-06-08T11:23:13.988Z", "asof": "2026-06-08T07:16:00-04:00", "processed": null, "provenance": "ONPE live official portal 2026-06-08 06:16 PET: 92.254% actas, Keiko 50.215, Sanchez 49.785, margin 74,660. Remaining valid vote estimate 1.458M; Sanchez needs 52.56% pending. ONPE blocks from 80.988% to 92.254% gave Sanchez ~62.37% of new valid votes. Cross-checked with Ipsos/Transparencia 100% Sanchez 50.3 Keiko 49.7 and Datum 100% Sanchez 50.14 Keiko 49.86.", "verified": true, "model_version": "stochastic-pwin-v2 phase-3 ONPE trajectory + quick-count fusion", "sigma_pp": 0.65, "ic90_low": 49.31, "ic90_high": 50.69, "p_win_keiko": 0.277, "p_win_sanchez": 0.723, "source_weights_effective": { "onpe_trajectory_since_80988": 0.25, "onpe_pending_threshold": 0.2, "quick_count_ipsos_transparencia": 0.4, "quick_count_datum_correlated": 0.15, "markets_capped": 0 }, "phase": "phase-3-onpe-trajectory", "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 49.616, "sanchez_raw": 50.384, "keiko": 49.62, "sanchez": 50.38 }, { "lane": "vote_share", "metric": "vote_share_valid", "source_type": "poll", "label": "Ipsos Reuters 2026-06-04", "captured_at": "2026-06-06T19:33:19.823Z", "asof": "2026-06-04", "processed": null, "provenance": "https://www.investing.com/news/world-news/leftist-sanchez-gains-traction-ahead-of-peru-runoff-vote-ipsos-poll-shows-4727798", "verified": true, "model_version": null, "sigma_pp": null, "ic90_low": null, "ic90_high": null, "p_win_keiko": null, "p_win_sanchez": null, "source_weights_effective": null, "phase": null, "diagnostics": null, "keiko_raw": 43.2, "sanchez_raw": 43.8, "keiko": 49.66, "sanchez": 50.34 } ], "markets": [ { "lane": "probability", "metric": "win_probability", "source_type": "market", "label": "Kalshi", "captured_at": "2026-06-19T05:44:14.796Z", "url": "https://kalshi.com/markets/kxperupres/peru-presidency/kxperupres-26", "verified": true, "keiko_raw": 0.984, "sanchez_raw": 0.013, "keiko": 0.987, "sanchez": 0.013 }, { "lane": "probability", "metric": "win_probability", "source_type": "market", "label": "Polymarket", "captured_at": "2026-06-19T05:44:14.796Z", "url": "https://polymarket.com/es/event/peru-presidential-election-winner", "verified": true, "keiko_raw": 0.9875, "sanchez_raw": 0.009, "keiko": 0.991, "sanchez": 0.009 } ] }, "disclaimer": "Vote share and win probability are different metrics and are never blended. Official ONPE/JNE results are the only final source.", "evaluation": [ "Comparar P(win) y voto modelado contra boca de urna sin tratarla como resultado final.", "Recalibrar contra conteos rapidos metodologicamente auditables cuando aparezcan.", "Durante ONPE, usar estimador de actas por estrato para evitar sesgo urbano/rural de reporte temprano.", "Cerrar evaluacion con Brier, log-loss y cobertura del intervalo creible contra el resultado oficial." ] }